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Statistics 5 May 2019
In these days I am reading
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. He investigated the quality of various judgements. I am learning a few lessons from his thinking.
1. Predicting the future is impossible.
We can predict although some of the near future. This is a continuation of the present. Interestingly experts are NOT better in predicting the longer term future than non-experts.
With planning more complicated projects, we are frequently underestimating the required effort gravely.
Even experts do so. What helps is to compare the planning with comparable projects with known history. This is taking an external reference. The history of other projects may reveal shocking insight with respect to the plan under study.
3. Applying new thinking may take a decade
New thoughts do not come easily. And figuring out practical applications may take easily 10 years, even the smartest and most capable people on this earth do need such a time.
Applying Daniel Kahneman's insights helps me understanding why it is not a simple thing to develop a new style of community.
Insights come slow and very slow and they require extensive discussion.
I am sure that study of development of new forms of community will show that it takes many decades to develop stable style of communities.
I am sure that historical study will reveal:
- Most of the newly established communities will have a lifetime shorter tan 5 years.
- At least 50% of the people who try to live in an intensive community with other people will be seriously disappointed.
Still God Invites
This is a mystery of God and Mankind.
It may help to know some of the fruits that new communities have brought forth.